Table 5.

Comparison of the lung cancer risk prediction models and the eligibility criteria among ever smokers in the EPIC-Germany cohort (N = 20,700)

Criteria/modelThreshold (%)Cases includedaSensitivity (%)Specificity (%)PPV (%)cNPV (%)
npositive = 3,409
 NELSON/LUSI5863.0483.741.700.20
 Bach0.7649325761.9683.731.670.20
 Spitz3.5118134953.2683.691.440.25
 LLP0.8526615458.7083.721.580.20
 PLCOM20101.0069916166.3083.751.790.18
npositive = 2,931
 DLCST5964.1386.062.010.18
 Bach0.8988355761.9686.051.940.20
 Spitz3.7420994548.9186.01.540.26
 LLP0.9400015155.4386.021.740.23
 PLCOM20101.1277465964.1386.062.010.18
npositive = 2,170
 ITALUNG5155.4389.722.350.22
 Bach1.1782585155.4389.722.350.22
 Spitz4.1809234144.5689.671.890.28
 LLP1.1799834650.089.692.120.25
 PLCOM20101.7265095559.8089.742.530.20
npositive = 1,500
 DANTE3639.1392.902.400.29
npositive = 1,458
 NLST4245.6593.132.880.26
 Bach1.5531464447.8393.143.020.25
 Spitz4.7239093436.9693.092.330.30
 LLP1.5286214043.4893.122.740.27
 PLCOM20102.1103654650.093.153.160.24
  • aCases that were diagnosed the first 5 years of follow-up.