Table 5.

Predictive accuracy of risk classification and EDNRB and their combination after adjusting for other predictors* associated with head and neck cancer (n = 161)

PredictorCutoffSensitivity (%, 95% CI)Specificity (%, 95% CI)PPV (%, 95% CI)NPV§ (%, 95% CI)AUC (95% CI)
Risk classification0.26759071 (56-83)58 (48-67)41 (31-53)77 (66-86)0.65 (0.56-0.75)
EDNRB0.27445965 (49-78)51 (42-61)36 (26-47)82 (72-90)0.61 (0.51-0.71)
Risk and EDNRB combined0.24679275 (60-86)50 (41-60)39 (29-50)83 (72-91)0.68 (0.58-0.77)
0.45018821 (10-35)92 (85-96)53 (29-76)73 (65-80)

NOTE: The cutoffs are not EDNRB methylation values but a predicted probability from the logistic regression model that simultaneously includes risk classification and EDNRB.

  • *Other predictors include age, sex, race, tobacco, and ethanol use.

  • Based on predicted probability of high-grade dysplasia/cancer using the multivariable logistic regression model.

  • Positive predictive value, depending on the prevalence of the disease (high-grade dysplasia/cancer), which was 13% for this study population.

  • §Negative predictive value, depending on the prevalence of the disease (high-grade dysplasia/cancer), which was 13% for this study population.