Table 4.

Predictive performance, measured by the AUC, of our model and the Bach model for predicting 1- and 5-year cancer risk in the EPIC test set

Current smokersFormer smokersEver smokersBach high-risk group
One year
 Controls8,1878,59316,7804,934
 Cases923412682
 New0.824 (0.783–0.865)0.830 (0.762–0.899)0.843 (0.810–0.875)0.753 (0.700–0.806)
 Bach0.732 (0.683–0.780)0.787 (0.710–0.864)0.775 (0.737–0.813)0.656 (0.595–0.717)
P1.25 × 10−50.09573.91 × 10−61.61 × 10−4
Five years
 Controls7,4446,53513,9794,049
 Cases43105337
 New0.767 (0.701–0.832)0.715 (0.532–0.898)0.787 (0.728–0.847)0.681 (0.597–0.765)
 Bach0.749 (0.686–0.813)0.753 (0.583–0.922)0.743 (0.685–0.802)0.589 (0.510–0.669)
P0.3620.118a0.0240.0035

NOTE: Bach high-risk group are individuals between 50 and 75 years old who have smoked 10 to 60 cpd for 25 to 55 years. Also shown is the P value for improvement in AUC of our model compared with the Bach model.

aAUC for 5-year prediction of former smokers is higher using Bach model, therefore P value refers to superiority of Bach model relative to the new model.