Table 2.

Total forecast cancers attributable to leading occupational carcinogens, 2060

Attributable numbers of cancer registrationsAttributable numbers of cancer registrations avoided a by 2060
Scenariob:All(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(3)(4)(5)(6)
ExposureCancer site201020602060
Exposure defined by agent; no appropriate exposure measurements available to use in standard setting
ETSLung1,4700068158−68−158
PAHs—coal tarsNMSC489805883606479437405200327368401
RadonLung218379411341318310190386169189
Solar radiationNMSC1,7513,0963,3072,5742,04815171655221,0481,5802,931
Occupational circumstance
PaintersBladder, lung, stomach455639645480380347321159259292318
Shift workBreast1,6603,1113,9042,1691,19819709421,9132,9143,111
WeldersLung1901416410684777135576471
Carcinogenic agents for which exposure standards can be set
ArsenicLung1289347918988881455
AsbestosLarynx, lung, mesothelioma, stomach3,84126827126426426224344624
DEEcBladder, lung38040940245441537735 (410)0032374 (0)
SilicaLung837799446102502210697750778789
Strong acidsLarynx, lung1223971812101021272929
TCDDLung, NHL, STS2838044444444
TetrachloroethyleneCervix, NHL, oesophagus13913612012412011811812161818
Total11,66310,4729,8807,3795,6013,7551,6572,6164,4466,1258,223
  • aRelative to baseline scenario (1). Except for ETS, negative results, where the intervention has increased forecast cancer numbers [e.g. for DEE scenario (3) 90% compliance is lower than the current estimated compliance to the proposed standard], have been set to zero. All negative results are excluded from the total estimates.

  • bScenarios are as described in Supplementary Table S4.

  • cResults in brackets for DEE are for the additional intervention scenario 6a.