Table 2.

Total forecast cancers attributable to leading occupational carcinogens, 2060

Attributable numbers of cancer registrationsAttributable numbers of cancer registrations avoided a by 2060
ExposureCancer site201020602060
Exposure defined by agent; no appropriate exposure measurements available to use in standard setting
PAHs—coal tarsNMSC489805883606479437405200327368401
Solar radiationNMSC1,7513,0963,3072,5742,04815171655221,0481,5802,931
Occupational circumstance
PaintersBladder, lung, stomach455639645480380347321159259292318
Shift workBreast1,6603,1113,9042,1691,19819709421,9132,9143,111
Carcinogenic agents for which exposure standards can be set
AsbestosLarynx, lung, mesothelioma, stomach3,84126827126426426224344624
DEEcBladder, lung38040940245441537735 (410)0032374 (0)
Strong acidsLarynx, lung1223971812101021272929
TCDDLung, NHL, STS2838044444444
TetrachloroethyleneCervix, NHL, oesophagus13913612012412011811812161818
  • aRelative to baseline scenario (1). Except for ETS, negative results, where the intervention has increased forecast cancer numbers [e.g. for DEE scenario (3) 90% compliance is lower than the current estimated compliance to the proposed standard], have been set to zero. All negative results are excluded from the total estimates.

  • bScenarios are as described in Supplementary Table S4.

  • cResults in brackets for DEE are for the additional intervention scenario 6a.