Table 3.

Forecast cancersa attributable to leading occupational carcinogens, by industry currently estimated with over 80 attributable registrations, ordered by baseline scenario (2) forecasts for 2060

Attributable numbers of cancer registrations
Scenariob:All(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)
Industry/occupation20102060
Construction4,6802,4502,2001,5501,260940130
Painters and decorators (construction)340560610420330300280
Roofers, road surfacers, Roadmen, Paviors (Construction)480800880600480430400
Shift work (across all industries/occupations)c1,6503,0903,8802,1601,1902000
Land transport42056066052044037030
Public administration and defence34058066049040030030
Personal and household services400230240230230200140
Sanitary and similar services901602001401109010
Recreational and cultural servicesd1001301601101007010
Wholesale and retail trade and restaurants and hotels66013015015018011070
Farming320170120120701010
Financing, insurance, real estate and business servicesd190708060606040
Welders19014060110808070
Painters (not construction)110803060505040
Mining130402040302010
Non-ferrous metal basic industries80401030303030
Manufacture of transport equipment19020010101010
Manufacture of industrial chemicals1001001010100
Manufacture of other chemical products10010010000
  • aTotals may differ from main tables as agents are summed (product sums) separately by industry and other subgroups.

  • bScenarios are as described in Supplementary Table S4.

  • cShift workers may be employed in all industries/occupations, but the cancer site involved (breast) does not overlap with cancer sites. associated with other carcinogenic agents or occupations to which these workers may also have been exposed.

  • dThese industry sectors had less than 80 attributable registrations in the current burden estimates (2004), but are included as at least 80 are forecast for 2010. Iron and steel basic industries, manufacture of instruments, photographic and optical goods and of non- electrical machinery, metal workers and printing, publishing and allied industries had at least 80 current burden attributable registrations, but are excluded as these were predominantly due to exposure to mineral oils.