Table 3.

Lung cancer incidence rates by time period and NCN characteristics

Time period
0–23 mo24–59 mo60–84 mo
Nodule characteristic (lobe level)Lung cancer number (ratea)RR (95% CI)Lung cancer number (ratea)RR (95% CI)Lung cancer number (ratea)RR (95% CI)
Only 4–9 mm NCNs62 (40.1)Referent49 (21.6)Referent22 (18.3)Referent
≥1 10+ mm NCN248 (792)19.8 (15–26)49 (120.2)5.6 (3.7–8.3)7 (34.3)1.9 (0.8–4.3)
1 NCN257 (162)Referent73 (31.9)Referent24 (19.9)Referent
Multiple (2+) NCNs53 (197)1.2 (0.9–1.6)25 (64.8)2.0 (1.3–3.2)5 (25.2)1.3 (0.5–3.3)
No persistent NCNN/A16 (14.4)Referent10 (16.8)Referent
1+ persistent NCNbN/A79 (54.1)3.8 (2.2–6.4)18 (23.6)1.4 (0.7–3.0)
Soft-tissue/other attenuation240 (164)Referent61 (28.7)Referent17 (15.2)Referent
Ground-glass attenuationc35 (115)0.7 (0.5–0.99)29 (67.0)2.3 (1.5–3.6)11 (48.9)3.2 (1.5–6.8)
Mixed attenuation35 (404)2.5 (1.7–3.5)8 (67.3)2.3 (1.1–4.8)1 (16.1)1.1 (0.2–6.3)
Smooth margins (all NCNs)63 (49.1)Referent41 (21.8)Referent14 (14.0)Referent
≥1 NCN with spiculated or poorly defined margins247 (429)8.7 (6.6–11.5)57 (71.8)3.3 (2.2–4.9)15 (36.6)2.6 (1.3–5.3)
  • aRate is per 10,000 lobe years.

  • bPersistence through last NLST screen (generally year 2). Subjects with no postbaseline screen excluded.

  • cLobes with both ground-glass and mixed attenuation NCNs are grouped in the ground-glass category.