Table 1.

Summary of 52 risk models

Author, yearCountryOutcomeFactors included in scoreFactors considered but not includedTRIPOD levelaData source
Betes 2003a (21)SpainACN+Age, gender, BMINSAIDs, nonspecific abdominal pain, bowel habit (1–2 movements/day; diarrhea-alternate; chronic constipation), cholesterol, triglycerides, form of recruitment1aMedical records
Betes 2003b (21)SpainACNAge, gender, BMINSAIDs, nonspecific abdominal pain, bowel habit (1–2 movements/day; diarrhoea-alternate; chronic constipation), cholesterol, triglycerides, form of recruitment1a, 4Medical records
Cai 2012 (22)ChinaACNAge, gender, smoking, diabetes mellitus, green vegetables, pickled food, fried food, white meatBMI, hypertension, hypertriglyceridaemia, alcohol intake, calcium or vitamin D supplementation, aspirin or NSAIDs, fresh fruit, eggs, milk, red meat2a, 4Questionnaire
Chen 2013 (23)ChinaACNAge, smoking, alcoholGender, history of CVD, egg intake, defecation frequency, education level, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, gastric/gallbladder/appendix operations history, aspirin, tea drinking, physical activity, green vegetable/fruit/milk/pickled food/fried or smoked food/bamboo root/red meat/white meat intake1bMedical records
Chen 2014 (24)ChinaACNAge, gender, history of CHD, egg intake, defecation frequencyEducation level, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, gastric/gallbladder/appendix operations history, aspirin use, smoking, alcohol, tea drinking, physical activity, green vegetable/fruit/milk/pickled food/fried or smoked food/bamboo root/red meat intake/white meat intake1bQuestionnaire
Hassan 2013 (25)ItalyACNAge, genderFamily history, BMI1bMedical records
Kaminski 2014 (26)PolandACNAge, gender, BMI, smoking, number and age affected of first degree relatives with CRCDiabetes, regular aspirin use2aQuestionnaire
Lin 2006 (27)USAACNAge, gender, first degree relative with CRC or second degree relative with adenomaNone1a, 4Questionnaire
Lin 2013 (28)USAACNAge, BMI, smoking, number of first degree relatives with CRC, previous sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy, polyp history in past 10 years, physical activity, vegetable consumption, NSAID use, estrogen useNone1bQuestionnaire
Stegeman 2013 (30)NetherlandsACNAge, gender, BMI, first degree relative with CRC, menopausal status (women), smoking, sleep, vigorous exercise, alcohol, fiber intake, calcium intake, red meat intake, aspirin/NSAID useNone1aQuestionnaire
Stegeman 2014 (29)NetherlandsACNAge, smoking, first degree relative with CRC, fecal immunochemical test, calcium intakeBMI, menopausal status, aspirin/NSAID use, fiber/red meat intake1aQuestionnaire
Tao 2014a (31)GermanyACNAge, gender, smoking, first-degree relative with CRC, alcohol, previous polyp, red meat consumption, NSAIDS, previous colonoscopyBMI, physical activity, vegetable/fruit intake, HRT3Questionnaire
Yeoh 2011 (32)AsiaACNAge, gender, smoking, first-degree relative with CRCAlcohol, diabetes3Questionnaire
Almurshed 2009 (33)Saudi ArabiaCCRegion, marital status, education level, employment status, activity level, physical activity, knowledge of high-fiber dietNone1aQuestionnaire
Camp 2002 (34)USACCAge, BMI, first degree relative with CRC, NSAID use, long term vigorous physical activity, Western diet, folic acid, calcium intake, lutein intake, refined grain intake, Prudent dietary patternSex, hormone replacement therapy, smoking history, calorific intake, dietary fiber, total vegetable/fat intake, glycemic index of intake, mutagen index, alcohol consumption1aQuestionnaire
Colditz 2000 (35)USACCBMI, first degree relative with CRC, fecal occult blood test or sigmoidoscopy, aspirin, IBD, folate, vegetables, alcohol, height, physical activity, estrogen replacement, fruits, fiber, saturated fat, smokingNone1a, 4Questionnaire
Driver 2007a (36)USACCAge, BMI, history of smokingWeekly or daily alcohol use, intake of vegetables, intake of multivitamins, vitamin C, vitamin E, intake of cold cereal, physical activity, history of diabetes1aMedical records
Ma 2010a (38)JapanCCAge, BMI, smoking, alcohol, physical activityFH CRC, diabetes3Questionnaire
Wei E 2009 (40)USACCAge, BMI, smoking, current or past HRT, height, first degree relative with colon cancer, processed meat consumption, folate intake, physical activity, aspirin use, sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy during follow upNone1aQuestionnaire
Wei E 2004a (41)USACCAge, gender, BMI, smoking, alcohol, first-degree relative with colon cancer, physical activity, height, processed meat, servings of beef, pork or lamb, folate intake, calcium intakeNone1aQuestionnaire
Shin 2014a (39)KoreaCC (male)Age, BMI, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, total serum cholesterol, alcohol, meat consumptionSmoking, exercise3Questionnaire and blood test
Shin 2014d (39)KoreaCC (female)Age, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, meat consumptionBMI, alcohol, smoking, exercise, female reproductive factors3Questionnaire and blood test
Freedman 2009b (37)USADistal CC (male)BMI, number of first-degree relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, aspirin and NSAID useFOBT, multivitamin use, red meat/fruit/vegetable intake, alcohol intake, physical activity, smoking, age1a, 4bQuestionnaire
Freedman 2009e (37)USADistal CC (female)Age, BMI, number of relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, aspirin and NSAID use, estrogen use in last 2 yearsFOBT, multivitamin use, red meat/fruit/vegetable intake, alcohol intake, physical activity1a, 4bQuestionnaire
Freedman 2009a (37)USAProximal CC (male)BMI, smoking, number of first-degree relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, aspirin and NSAID use, vegetable consumptionFOBT, multivitamin use, red meat/fruit intake, alcohol intake, physical activity, age1a, 4bQuestionnaire
Freedman 2009d (37)USAProximal CC (female)Number of first degree relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, physical activity, aspirin and NSAID use, vegetable consumption, estrogen use in last 2 yearsFOBT, multivitamin use, red meat/fruit intake, alcohol intake, BMI, age1a, 4bQuestionnaire
Bener 2010 (42)QatarCRCBMI, smoking, family history of CRC, consumption of bakery products, consumption of soft drinksSmoking of Sheesha, fresh fruit/fresh vegetable/green salad/frozen meat/chicken/fast food/processed food intake, consanguinity1aQuestionnaire
Driver 2007b (36)USACRCAge, BMI, history of smoking, weekly or daily alcohol useIntake of vegetables, intake of multivitamins, vitamin C, vitamin E, intake of cold cereal, physical activity, history of diabetes1bMedical records
Dunlop 2013 (43)WorldwideCRCAge, gender, first-degree relative with CRC, 10 SNPscNone3Questionnaire and blood test for genetics
Guesmi 2010 (44)TunisiaCRCAge, meat consumption, milk consumptionGender, anemia, smoking, physical activity, fruit/fried food intake, urban or rural living, olive oil consumption, walking1aQuestionnaire
Han 2008 (45)Not givenCRCFive genesdAffymetrix U133Plis 2.0 chip3Blood test for genetics
Johnson 2013 (47)WorldwideCRCBMI, smoking, first-degree relative with CRC, physical activity, alcohol, IBD, hormone therapy (current or former), aspirin/NSAIDs, processed meat/red meat/fruit/vegetable intakeNone1aQuestionnaire
Lubbe 2012 (48)UKCRC14 SNPseNone1aBlood test for genetics
Ma 2010c (38)JapanCRCAge, BMI, smoking, physical activity, alcoholFH CRC, diabetes3Questionnaire
Marshall 2010 (49)Canada and USACRCSeven genesf38 genes2bBlood test for genetics
Tao 2014b (31)GermanyCRCAge, gender, smoking, first-degree relative with CRC, alcohol, previous polyp, red meat consumption, NSAIDS, previous colonoscopyBMI, physical activity, vegetable/fruit intake, HRT3Questionnaire
Taylor 2011 (50)USACRCAge, first-, second- and third-degree relatives with CRCNone1aQuestionnaire
Wang 2013 (51)TaiwanCRC16 SNPsg10 additional SNPs1bBlood test for genetics
Yarnall 2013 (54)UK dataCRCBMI, smoking, alcohol, fiber intake, red meat intake, physical activity, 14 SNPshNone1aQuestionnaire and blood test for genetics
Wei Y 2009 (52)ChinaCRCBMI, smoking, first- or second-degree relative with CRC, alcoholNone1aQuestionnaire
Shin 2014c (39)KoreaCRC (male)Age, BMI, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, total serum cholesterol, alcohol, meat consumptionSmoking, exercise3Questionnaire and blood test
Wells 2014b (53)California and HawaiiCRC (male)Age, BMI, smoking, first-degree relative with CC, race/ethnicity, alcohol, years of education, regular use of aspirin, multivitamins, red meat intake, history of diabetes, physical activityHistory of cancer, regular use of NSAIDs, preference for well-done meat1bQuestionnaire
Jo 2012b (46)KoreaCRC (male)Three SNPsi, age, family history of CRCFrom 426,019 SNPs1bQuestionnaire and blood test for genetics
Shin 2014f (39)KoreaCRC (female)Age, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, meat consumptionBMI, alcohol, smoking, exercise, female reproductive factors3Questionnaire and blood test
Wells 2014a (53)California and HawaiiCRC (female)Age, BMI, smoking, first degree relative with CC, race/ethnicity, alcohol, years of education, regular use of NSAIDs, multivitamins, history of diabetes, use of oestrogenPreference for well done meat, physical activity, regular use of aspirin, red meat intake, history of cancer1bQuestionnaire
Jo 2012a (46)KoreaCRC (female)Age, family history of CRC, five SNPsjFrom 426,019 SNPs1bQuestionnaire and blood test for genetics
Ma 2010b (38)JapanRectal cancerAge, BMI, physical activity, alcoholFH CRC, diabetes, smoking3Questionnaire
Wei E 2004b (41)USARectal cancerAge, BMI, smoking, first-degree relative with rectal cancer, alcohol, physical activity, height, processed meat, gender, servings of beef, pork or lamb, folate intake, calcium intakeNone1aQuestionnaire
Freedman 2009c (37)USARectal cancer (male)Number of first degree relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, NSAID use, physical activityFOBT, multivitamin use, red meat/fruit/vegetable intake, alcohol intake, smoking, BMI, age1a, 4bQuestionnaire
Shin 2014b (39)KoreaRectal cancer (male)Age, BMI, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, total serum cholesterol, alcohol, meat consumptionSmoking, exercise3Questionnaire and blood test
Freedman 2009f (37)USARectal cancer (female)BMI, number of first-degree relatives with CRC, prior negative sigmoidoscopy/colonoscopy, polyp history, physical activity, NSAID use, estrogen use in last 2 yearsFOBT, multivitamin use, red meat/fruit/vegetable intake, alcohol intake, age1a, 4bQuestionnaire
Shin 2014e (39)KoreaRectal cancer (female)Age, family history of cancer, height, fasting serum glucose, meat consumptionBMI, alcohol, smoking, exercise, female reproductive factors3Questionnaire and blood test

Abbreviations: ACN+, advanced colorectal neoplasia including moderate dysplasia; ACN, advanced colorectal neoplasias; CC, colon cancer; CRC, colorectal cancer; BMI, body mass index; NSAIDs, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs; CVD, cardiovascular disease; CHD, coronary heart disease; HRT, hormone replacement therapy; IBD, inflammatory bowel disease; FOBT, fecal occult blood test; FH, family history.

  • aTypes of prediction model studies for each model defined according to the TRIPOD guidelines. 1a, development only; 1b, development and validation using resampling; 2a, random split-sample development and validation; 2b, nonrandom split-sample development and validation; 3, development and validation using separate data; 4, validation study.

  • bThe validation was for colon and rectal cancer combined.

  • crs6983267, rs4779584, rs4939827, rs3802842, rs10795668, rs16892766, rs4444235, rs9929218, rs10411210, rs961253.

  • dBANK1, B-cell scaffold protein with ankyrin repeats 1; BCNP1, B-cell novel protein 1; CDA, cytidine deaminase; MGC20553, FERM domain containing 3; MS4A, membrane-spanning four domains.

  • e14 SNPs localizing to 14 chromosome regions—1q41, 3q26.2, 8q23.3, 8q24.21, 10p14, 11q23.1, 12q13.13, 14q22.2, 15q13.3, 16q22.1, 18q21.1, 19q13.11, 20p12.3, 20q13.33.

  • fANXA3, Annexin A3; CLEC4D, C-type lectin domain family4, member D; IL2RB, Interleukin 2 receptor, beta; LMNB1, Lamin B1; PRRG4, Proline risk Gla 4; TNFAIP6, Tumor necrosis factor, alpha-induced protein 6; VNN1, Vanin 1.

  • grs1983891, rs869736, rs3214050, rs10411210, rs3731055, rs231775, rs1412829, rs1572072, rs6983267, rs1799782, rs712221, rs160277, rs11721827, rs2736100, rs3135967, rs1760944.

  • hrs6691170, rs10936599, rs16892766, rs6983267, rs10795668, rs3802842, rs11169552, rs4444235, rs4779584, rs9929218, rs4939827, rs10411210, rs961253, rs4925386.

  • irs17391002, rs9549448, rs254833.

  • jrs10083736, rs16987827, rs8046516, rs9926182, rs175237.