Table 3.

Posterior descriptive statistics examining measures of lung cancer risk, stratified into high-risk versus low-risk groups estimated using information from survival models in the replication sample, LCEC 2002 to 2016

Risk groupMean risk score (95% CI)Incidence rate (95% CI)1-Year risk5-Year riskEstimated years until 10% of group has cancerHR (95% CI)
Low risk9.01 (8.97–9.05)18.67 (11.26–30.97)0.18%1.08%107.111.00
High risk11.25 (11.16–11.33)304.24 (238.13–388.7)4.87%17.19%6.5714.34 (8.17–25.18)
  • NOTE: Incidence rate is estimated per 1,000 person-years. HRs were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Patients spent 10,137.02 years at risk in the replication sample; cases spent 183.86 years at risk. Years until 10% of group has cancer was calculated using Rothman waiting-period method.